If you’ve been waiting for the housing market to feel a little more manageable, 2026 is shaping up to be your year. Mortgage rates have eased, inventory is growing, and home price growth is settling into a steadier pace. For buyers and sellers across Northeast Florida, that adds up to real, welcome relief.
Whether you’re searching for a home in St. Augustine, exploring new construction in Nocatee, or thinking about listing your house in Jacksonville or St. Johns County, understanding these three shifts — rates, inventory, and prices — will help you plan your next move with confidence.
Mortgage Rates Have Already Come Down
Mortgage rates pulled back from their peak over the past year, dropping by nearly a full percentage point. Forecasts point to rates settling in the low 6% range through 2026, which is a meaningful shift for anyone budgeting for a purchase or a move.
- For buyers: A lower rate means a lower monthly payment and more buying power, which can open the door to homes that felt out of reach before.
- For sellers: Rates in the 6s appear to be the new baseline. If a move makes sense for your life, your equity can still make that transition smooth.
More Homes Are Coming to Market
Local buyers have gained something they haven’t had in years: choices. Housing inventory grew by roughly 15% over the past year, giving buyers more time to weigh their options and more room to negotiate. Experts project supply will grow another 8.9% in the year ahead, continuing that trend.
- For buyers: More listings mean more choices and stronger negotiating position.
- For sellers: With more competition on the market, pricing your home accurately from day one will matter more than ever for attracting serious offers.
Home Prices Are Rising at a Healthier Pace
With more inventory available, the intense upward pressure on prices has eased. Most experts still expect home prices to rise nationally in 2026, but at a much more sustainable pace — around 1.6% on average, rather than the sharp jumps seen in recent years.
Price trends vary block by block here in Northeast Florida, so what’s happening in Ponte Vedra or Palencia may look different than what’s happening in a neighboring community. That’s exactly why local guidance matters more than national headlines when you’re making a decision about your home.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates drop more in 2026? Most forecasts expect rates to hold steady in the low 6% range throughout the year, though the exact path will depend on the broader economy and any changes from the Fed.
Is now a good time to sell my house? With inventory still below long-term norms and buyer demand steady, many sellers are finding success — the key is pricing your home accurately for your specific neighborhood.
Will home prices go down this year? Nationally, prices are expected to keep rising, just at a slower and more sustainable pace than in recent years, though your specific neighborhood may perform differently.
Bottom Line
Affordability is genuinely improving, thanks to lower rates, more homes for sale, and steadier price growth. If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy or sell in Northeast Florida, this shift may be exactly what you’ve been watching for.
If you are considering buying or selling in Northeast Florida, contact Danielle Fraser, P.A.
Call or text 904-907-4559 , email danielle@