Yes — when mortgage rates climb, the number of homes for sale tends to climb right along with them. That’s exactly what’s playing out across Northeast Florida right now, as rates holding in the mid-to-upper 6% range are nudging more sellers to list.
If you’ve felt like your options have been shrinking lately, you’re not imagining it — inventory growth has cooled significantly over the past year. But the numbers tell a more encouraging story than the headlines suggest, especially here in St. Johns County, where communities like St. Augustine, Nocatee, and Ponte Vedra continue to see steady buyer demand paired with a slowly rebuilding supply of homes. Whether you’re hoping to find the right home or thinking about listing yours, this shift is worth understanding.
Inventory Growth Has Slowed, But It Hasn’t Stopped
Nationally, active listings were up 2.1% year-over-year in July, according to Realtor.com. That’s a big drop from January’s 10% growth and May 2025’s 31.5% growth. Growth has clearly cooled off over the past year.
The past three months, though, have all landed in roughly the same range — a sign this slowdown may be nearing its floor rather than continuing to fall.
- Every month this year has still added net new listings compared to the year before
- The pace has cooled, but the trend line hasn’t turned negative
- Recent stability suggests the market may be settling into a new normal
For buyers browsing Northeast Florida listings, that means new homes are still coming onto the market, even if it doesn’t always feel that way while scrolling through the same few options week after week.
Home Supply Is at Its Highest Point Since 2019
Compared to the rock-bottom inventory of 2021, the recovery has been substantial. The number of homes for sale nationally has grown year-over-year for 33 straight months, and this July marked the best July for inventory since 2019.
The market still needs roughly 150,000 more listings to fully return to pre-pandemic norms, but forecasters expect it could reach 2019 levels by the end of the year. Realtor.com’s latest projection has inventory closing out 2026 up 3.6% year-over-year.
For sellers, this shift matters too:
- Pricing accurately from day one carries more weight than it did when inventory was scarce
- Presentation and condition matter more as buyers have additional options to compare
- Homes that stand out are still moving, even as the overall pool of choices grows
Why Higher Rates Are Actually Helping Supply
It sounds counterintuitive, but elevated mortgage rates have been a key driver behind the inventory rebound. Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen has pointed to a consistent pattern: inventory tends to move in the same direction as rates. When rates rise, more sellers list; when rates ease, that growth tends to fade. Earlier this year, as rates eased between last July and March, much of the inventory gains built over the previous several years largely disappeared.
With rates expected to hold steady in the mid-to-upper 6% range for a while longer, forecasters anticipate that inventory growth will continue in the months ahead.
What that likely means locally:
- More homes are expected to come onto the Northeast Florida market over the next several months
- Buyers should see a gradually widening pool of options across St. Johns County, St. Augustine, and Nocatee
- Sellers can expect a more balanced market, with more competition than during the tightest years of the pandemic-era shortage
For buyers, that’s a win. Even if today’s rates aren’t your favorite, they’re helping grow the number of homes on the market — and more homes for sale means more choices, more room to negotiate, and less pressure to rush your search.
FAQs
Does more homes for sale mean prices are going to drop? Not necessarily — home prices are driven by many factors beyond inventory alone, including local demand and the price points of new listings. In Northeast Florida, values have remained fairly steady even as supply has grown.
Should I wait for even more homes to hit the market before I buy? Waiting could mean missing well-priced homes available now, and rates or prices could shift in the meantime. It’s worth talking with a local agent about what’s realistic for your specific search and timeline.
If I’m selling, does more inventory hurt my chances? More inventory means more competition, but it doesn’t have to work against you if your home is priced and presented well. A local agent can help you stand out in a market where buyers have more choices.
Bottom Line
The number of homes for sale across Northeast Florida is growing slowly but steadily, and that trend is expected to continue through the rest of the year. Whether you’re searching for the right home or preparing to sell, more inventory means more opportunity to make a confident move.
If you are considering buying or selling in Northeast Florida, contact Danielle Fraser, P.A.
Call or text 904-907-4559 , email danielle@