Home price headlines disagree because national numbers blend together markets that are moving in very different directions. Nationally, the median asking price slipped about 3% from early August to early October, and much of that is the normal fall slowdown. What matters for you is what homes are actually selling for in your neighborhood, and that can look very different from the national average.
If you own a home in St. Johns County or you’re hoping to buy in St. Augustine, Ponte Vedra, or Palencia, you’ve probably seen one headline say prices are falling and the next say they’re still climbing. Both can be true at the same time. As a local REALTOR®, I help Northeast Florida neighbors sort through the noise so they can make decisions based on what’s happening on their own street, not on a national average.
What’s Really Going On With Asking Prices
Part of the confusion comes from how the media talks about asking prices. Headlines often highlight the drop without explaining the seasonality behind it.
According to HousingWire data, the national median asking price fell from $449k in early August to $435k two months later. That’s a dip of about 3%, and a good portion of it is typical for this time of year.
Here’s what’s behind it:
- Seasonal cooling: Asking prices ease every fall once the busy summer season wraps up and fewer buyers are shopping.
- More homes to choose from: There are more homes on the market than at any point since November 2019.
- Higher mortgage rates: Rates have been climbing since spring, so homes are taking a little longer to sell.
- Smarter pricing: Many sellers are pricing a bit more competitively to match what buyers can afford right now.
That last point is a good thing. Pricing a home well is one of the best ways to help it sell. Keep in mind, though, that this is a national list price. It doesn’t tell you what homes near you are actually selling for.
Why Your Neighborhood Matters More Than the National Number
Realtor.com notes that while national headlines may hint at a buyer’s market, the real picture depends heavily on where you’re buying and what type of home you want. Price range, property type, and local demand can all pull a market away from the national trend.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index shows just how far apart cities can be. Over the past year, sales prices in Chicago rose almost 7%, while Seattle dipped about 1.6%. That’s a gap of nearly 9 percentage points between two major cities.
What does that mean for your plans?
- If you’re selling: In a city where prices are up almost 6%, like New York, you may not need to cut your price at all.
- If you’re buying: In cities like Denver or Las Vegas, you may have more room to negotiate.
- If you’re in Northeast Florida: Your best guide is recent sales in your specific area, whether that’s Nocatee, St. Augustine Beach, Jacksonville Beach, or Palm Coast.
A pricing strategy that works in one community may not work two exits down the road. That’s why I look at neighborhood-level sales, days on market, and price ranges before I recommend a list price or an offer.
Why You Don’t Need to Worry About a Crash
If you’re seeing small declines in some markets and wondering whether a bigger crash is coming, here’s the reassuring part. Even in the major metros where prices are down, the declines are 2% or less. That’s a long way from 2008. And across the cities in the Case-Shiller data, more are in the green than in the red.
Home values also have a strong long-term track record:
- The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports that national home prices have grown year over year every quarter since 2012.
- A $100k home bought in 1991 would be worth about $436k today, even with the 2008 crash factored in.
The small declines we’re seeing are mostly in markets that overheated during the pandemic. As a whole, the market is returning to normal, and normal means prices should rise over time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices going down in Northeast Florida?
It depends on your specific area and price range. National headlines can’t answer that, but a look at recent local sales can.
Should I wait to buy a home until prices drop more?
Waiting only makes sense if local data shows prices in your target neighborhood are actually falling. Nationally, home values have a long track record of rising over time, so waiting for a bigger dip isn’t always a winning plan.
Do I need to lower my asking price if I’m selling in St. Johns County?
Not necessarily. Some markets are seeing prices rise, so the right price depends on what comparable homes near you are selling for. I can pull that data for your neighborhood so you can price with confidence.
Bottom Line
National headlines can’t tell you what your home is worth or how much room you have to negotiate. Local data can. If you’re thinking about buying or selling, connect with a local agent to see how prices are moving in your area, so you can set your price or make your offer with confidence.
If you are considering buying or selling in Northeast Florida, contact Danielle Fraser, P.A.
Call or text 904-907-4559 , email danielle@